Our vision is to gain a predictive understanding of the ecology of lakes at longer and broader scales than has been traditional in limnology. Our conceptual framework uses a nested set of spatial scales, from individual lakes and their watersheds, to hydrologically-linked sets of lakes, entire lake districts, multiple lake districts within the Great Lakes region, and comparative studies of lakes and lake districts around the globe. Our research program is interdisciplinary and aims to understand the ecology of lakes in relation to relevant atmospheric, geochemical, landscape and human processes. Within the NTL domain, we have observed shifts in driver and response variables that are both gradual and abrupt on time scales of years to decades. Examples of rapid changes in lake responses that have been particularly conspicuous to both researchers and many Wisconsin residents include the collapse of valuable Walleye fisheries; increasing fluctuations in lake levels; arrival of new aquatic invaders; and sudden declines in lake water clarity, among others. At the same time, we are also seeing changes in drivers that can cause abrupt change, but abrupt changes have not followed, leading us to ask why. Our research activities are inspired by these observations and are organized around the overarching question: What are the causes and consequences of abrupt ecological change in lakes and their surrounding landscapes?
Research Themes
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1) Climate variability and lake phenology
What are lake phenological responses to a warmer and more variable climate that may lead to abrupt ecological change?
Representative Publications
- Feiner, ZS, Dugan, HA, Lottig, NR, Sass, GG, & Gerrish, GA. (2022). A perspective on the ecological and evolutionary consequences of phenological variability in lake ice on north-temperate lakes. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 79 (9), 1590-1604.
- Ladwig, R, Hanson, PC, Dugan, HA, Carey, CC, Zhang, Y, Shu, L, …& Cobourn, KM. (2021). Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 25 (2), 1009-1032.
- Ladwig, R, Appling, AP, Delany, A, Dugan, HA, Gao, Q, Lottig, N, …& Hanson, PC(2022). Long‐term change in metabolism phenology in north temperate lakes. Limnology and Oceanography, 67 (7), 1502-1521.
- Rohwer, RR, Hale, RJ, Vander Zanden, MJ, Miller, TR, & McMahon, KD. (2023). Species invasions shift microbial phenology in a two-decade freshwater time series. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120 (11), e2211796120.
2) Interacting drivers and abrupt change in urban aquatic ecosystems
How do interactions of land use/land cover and climate change affect urban aquatic ecosystems?
Representative Publications
- Trovillion, DC, EL Sauer, G Shay, ER Crone, DL Preston. (2023) Habitat complexity, connectivity, and introduced fish drive pond community structure along an urban to rural gradient. Ecological Applications 33(4): e2828
- Berg E, C Kucharik (2022) The dynamic relationship between air and land surface temperature within the Madison, Wisconsin urban heat island. Remote Sensing 14:165.
- Sauer, EL, J Cruz, E Crone, C Lewis, E Plumier, B Cwynar, D Drake, BM Herrick, DL Preston (2022) Multiscale drivers of amphibian community occupancy in urban ponds. Urban Ecosystems 25:1469–1479
3) Interacting drivers and water quality
How do external drivers interact with aquatic invasive species to regulate water quality?
Representative Publications
- Rohwer, RR, RJ Hale, MJ Vander Zanden, TR Miller, KD McMahon (2023) Species invasions shift microbial phenology in a two-decade freshwater time series. Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences 120: e2211796120. - Carpenter, SR, MR Gahler, CJ Kucharik, EH Stanley (2022). Long-range dependence and extreme values of precipitation, phosphorus load, and cyanobacteria. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (48) e2214343119o
- Martin, BE, JR Walsh, MJ Vander Zanden (2022). Rise of a native apex predator and an invasive zooplankton cause successive ecological regime shifts in a North Temperate Lake. Limnology and Oceanography 67 (S1)
- Spear, MJ, JR Walsh, A Ricciardi, MJ Vander Zanden (2021) The invasion ecology of sleeper populations: prevalence, persistence, and abrupt shifts. BioScience 71: 357-369
4) Managing for abrupt change in whole-lake experiments
What causes intentional ecosystem manipulations to persist, revert, or lead to novel states?
Representative Publications
- Mrnak, JT, LW Sikora, MJ Vander Zanden, GG Sass (2023) Applying Panarchy Theory to Aquatic Invasive Species Management: A Case Study on Invasive Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax. Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture 31 (1): 66-85.
- Mrnak, JT, LW Sikora, MJ Vander Zanden, TR Hrabik, GG Sass. (2021). Hydroacoustic Surveys Underestimate Yellow Perch Population Abundance: The Importance of Considering Habitat Use. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 41 (4)