Cascade project at North Temperate Lakes LTER - Daily data for key variables in whole lake experiments on early warnings of critical transitions, Paul and Peter Lakes, 2008-2011
In Peter Lake, we expected littoral catch of minnows to first increase as minnows moved into the littoral zone due to the threat of bass predation and then decrease due to bass predation. We expected zooplankton biomass to increase as minnows moved into the littoral zone. We expected chlorophyll to decrease due to increased grazing by zooplankton. We expected that variance and autocorrelation of chlorophyll would increase as the food web passed a critical transition.
We expected that the time series in Paul Lake would represent the normal variability of an unmanipulated lake
Carpenter, S.R., J.J. Cole, M.L. Pace, R.D. Batt, W.A. Brock, T. Cline, J. Coloso, J.R. Hodgson, J.F. Kitchell, D.A. Seekell, L. Smith and B. Weidel. 2011. Early warnings of regime shifts: A whole-ecosystem experiment. Science 332: 1079-1082.
Cline, T.J., D. A. Seekell, S. R. Carpenter, M. L. Pace, J. R. Hodgson, J. F. Kitchell, and B. C. Weidel 2014. Early warnings of regime shifts: evaluation of spatial indicators from a whole-ecosystem experiment. Ecosphere 5:art102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES13-00398.1
Pace, M.L., S.R. Carpenter, R.A. Johnson and J. T. Kurzweil. 2013. Zooplankton provide early warnings of a regime shift in a whole-lake manipulation. Limnology and Oceanography 58: 525-532.
For an explanation of our rationale and expected results see:
Carpenter, S. R., Brock, W. A., Cole, J. J., Kitchell, J. F., & Pace, M. L. 2008. Leading indicators of trophic cascades. Ecology Letters, 11(2), 128-138. doi:DOI 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01131.x