Lake Ice Analysis Group (LIAG)

The Lake Ice Analysis Group is an international ad hoc group of scientists (see attached list) who participated in the lake ice workshop held at the Center for Limnology's Trout Lake Station. The workshop was sponsored by the University of Wisconsin-Madison through a US National Science Foundation grant associated with the US Long-Term Ecological Research Network entitled "North Temperate Lakes : Global Generalization and Analyses of Lakescapes, Biodiversity and Ice Phenology."


 LIAG Topics


Other Ice Sites


Research Foci

Time Series

This work will concentrate on trend analysis, including a geostatistical analysis of observed trends. Spectral analysis using available meteorological data will be effected.

ENSO

There has been a demonstrated relationship of ENSO years and "anomalous" lake ice response patterns in certain regions. We envision this analysis proceeding a couple of steps beyond the work to date by detailing the mechanisms of the observed changes and the spatial distribution of same. Traditional spectral analysis of lake ice datasets in conjunction with particular indices will be one tool. Another will be process model simulations using global data from strong ENSO years (e.g., 1983). These will then be examined in the light of simulations from non-anomalous years and the climatic normals. Also of interest in this set of analyses is the temporal onset of a lake ice response to ENSO events, as some evidence suggests an increase in both frequency and magnitude of ENSO events in recent years, possibly a result of an enhanced greenhouse effect.

Design of Global Monitoring and Observation System

Focusing both on "in situ" and remote observations, this focus group will concentrate on the criteria for a lake's inclusion (or exclusion) into a global monitoring network, the constraints to remote observation (such as cloud cover) and how they can best be addressed, the best way to include existing long-term records, data repository needs and data access. Particular attention will also be paid to the utility of the current generation of satellite sensors (both optical and active microwave) to freshwater ice detection.

Spatial

First concentrating on ice phenology (duration, formation date, or breakup date) normals over some agreed upon period, this series of analyses will take a geostatistical approach in both the descriptive and inferential arena. Three primary goals of this analysis are to (1) provide a stationary spatial data set suitable for time series analysis, (2) provide an initial set of explanatory variables, and (3) enable comparisons with both process and empirical models of global ice distribution.

Global Empirical Model

Arising in part from the spatial analysis described above, this group will develop an empirical model that best predicts global ice phenology (be it duration, formation date, or breakup date). Probable determinants will be lake morphometry, elevation, and various climatological forcings (snowfall, cloud cover, temperature, solar insolation). These results will be compared with both process model results and the observed distribution derived from data contributed to the workshop by participants. Obviously, since using lake ice formation dates, breakup dates, or duration as a climate proxy is one of our underlying antecedents, we will also examine the relationship of these phenological parameters to climatic variables.

Local Analyses of Interest to Individual Investigators

We envision these analyses being similar in scope but different in spatial scale (in terms of both grain and extent) from the aforementioned. The "grid size" of interest would be lakes within several hundred miles of each other. Examples would include the New York lakes, Finnish lakes, Great Lakes bays, Mackenzie Delta lakes, and the like.

Aquatic Ecosystems

The relationship of lake ice to aquatic ecosystems will be at least preliminarily addressed. Of special interest are likely to be those physical parameters most critical to primary production, such as light extinction and winter anoxia (resulting in winterkill). Additionally, depending on the interest of the group and available datasets, winter carbon dioxide dynamics (i.e., ice cover and gas exchange) might be a particularly fruitful avenue of inquiry.

Human Dimensions

Requested by one of the workshop participants, this focus group has an almost limitless agenda. Response of ice cover to human perturbation includes such factors as power plant cooling water and river damming. Effects of ice on humans includes shoreline modification, recreation, fishing, and transportation (particularly in native communities). Of potential consideration by this group are the effects of urban heat islands or other effects (such as emissivity or albedo changes) of particular local land uses (e.g., agriculture, urban, forestry) on lake ice.

Alternate Climate Scenarios

This research component will utilize both empirical and process modeling approaches. We intend to use multiple atmospheric general circulation model outputs, with and without the inclusion of atmospheric aerosols, to drive the available models. Depending on the interest of the participants, this effort could also encompass paleoclimate simulations back to at most the last glacial maximum. In addition, modeling of ice cover distribution response to alternate current climates (e.g., particular climatic anomalies) will also be possible.

Data Protocol for Lake Ice Analysis Group

Data Protocol Lake Ice Analysis Group (LIAG)

The Lake Ice Analysis Group is an international ad hoc group of scientists (see attached list) who participated in the lake ice workshop held at the Center for Limnology's Trout Lake Station. The workshop was sponsored by the University of Wisconsin-Madison through a US National Science Foundation grant associated with the US Long-Term Ecological Research Network entitled "North Temperate Lakes : Global Generalization and Analyses of Lakescapes, Biodiversity and Ice Phenology."

We are a group of researchers with the goal of analysis and interpretation of long-term ice data for their climatic and ecological content. To accomplish this we have established a temporary database on lake and river ice phenology and associated information for our own use during the next two years. Portions of the database, as approved by the individual contributors of individual data, will be transferred to national and international data archives no later than October 15, 1998. Results of the analyses and interpretations will be published in the peer reviewed literature.

Data

1) Data may include original field measurements (raw data) historical records, information from newspapers and other documents, remote sensing data, related meteorological data and metadata.

2) Only data that are available for unrestricted use by the participants will be accepted for incorporation into the database.

3) The Lake Ice Analysis Group is not liable for ensuring the accuracy of the original data; this is the responsibility of the data contributor. The LIAG will do basic quality control of the data.

Data Contributors: 1) Data should be made available to the database free of charge.

2) A accessible copy of the incorporated data will be made available to the data contributor so that accuracy of data entry can be verified. The LIAG will maintain and update the data with the support of the original data contributors.

3) Data can be removed from the database at any time at the request of the contributor, but previous uses of the data by the group will be honored regardless.

4) Additional contributors of data and participants in the LIAG can be added at the discretion of the Principal Investigator of record in consultation with some of the LIAG participants.

Data Users

1) Users must be registered with the Lake Ice Analysis Group to use the database.

2) The LIAG and the component database should be referenced when referring to data obtained from it and publications by the data contributor that data should be cited. A specific form of acknowledgment may be recommended by the LIAG. Where appropriate and within reason, a data contributor should be a co-author of a paper using the data.

3) Users should send the LIAG and their data contributors reprints of publications using their data.

4) Data from the LIAG database may not be passed onto a third party; all data should be obtained from the central database.

The Lake Ice Analysis Group Trout Lake Station October 9, 1996

John J. Magnuson and Barbara Benson (contacts) Center for Limnology 680 North Park Street University of Wisconsin-Madison Madison, Wisconsin 53706

Workshop Schedule

AGENDA

Day 1 Saturday, October 5 Travel Day Lodging is assigned in cabins at the Trout Lake Station Meal arrangements for conference: Breakfast materials provided in your cabin, lunch in Juday House, dinner catered unless otherwise indicated.

6:00pm - 10:00 pm Informal dinner and social at Juday House on the Station grounds

Introductions, agenda review

Day 2 Sunday, October 6

8:30am - noon Short introductory talks by all participants

noon - 1:00pm Lunch provided

1:00pm - 1:45pm Status of data and models Discussion of introductory projects and possible manuscripts

2:00pm - 4:00pm Breakout into topical meetings and analyses 4:30pm - Picnic at Crystal Lake (meet at lab at 4:30)

Day 3 Monday, October 7

8:30am - 9:30am New introductions Feedback from Day 2 topical meetings

9:45am - 3:30pm Topical meetings and analyses (casual lunch provided)

3:45pm - 5:30pm Feedback from Day 3 topical meetings, group syntheses

6:30pm Dinner (Marty's Restaurant) Meet at station at 6:15pm

Day 4 Tuesday, October 8 8:00am Departure for some local participants

8:30am - 4:15pm In-depth analyses and writing (informal lunch provided)

4:30pm - 6:00pm Feedback and selection of new groups

6:00pm Dinner (Juday House)

Day 5 Wednesday, October 9

8:30am - 5:30pm In-depth analyses and writing (informal lunch provided)

6:00pm Dinner (Juday House)

Day 6 Thursday, October 10

8:30am - 11:00am Final presentation of findings Identification of other promising areas of inquiry

11:30am - 12:45pm Lunch provided

1:00pm - 4:30pm Final writing session by remaining participants

5:00pm Dinner (Big Bear Eatery, Boulder Junction)

Day 7 Friday, October 11 Field Trip

8:00am Meet at Station for departure Waterfalls, Lake Superior and the Northern Highland Lake District

Dinner at a local restaurant

Day 8 Saturday, October 12 Travel day/departures for remaining participants

Participants

Attending Participants

Dr. Rita Adrian Institut fur Gewasserokologie und Binnenfischerei Muggelseedamm 260 D-12587 Berlin GERMANY email: adrian@igb-berlin.de fax: 49-30-64190519

Mr. Raymond A. Assel NOAA-GLERL 2205 Commonwealth Boulevard Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105-1593 email: assel@glerl.noaa.gov fax: 313741-2055

Dr. Roger G. Barry Professor of Geography Director, WDC-A for Glaciology CIRES, Campus Box 449 University of Colorado at Boulder Boulder, Colorado 80309 email: rbarry@kryos.colorado.edu

Dr. Barbara Benson University of Wisconsin 680 N. Park Park Street Madison, WI 53706 email: bjbenson@facstaff.wisc.edu

Dr. Peter Biro Balaton Limnological Research Institute Tihany H-8237 HUNGARY email: biro@tres.blki.hu fax: 36-87-448-006

Dr. David W. Bolgrien Associate Researcher Center for Limnology and Environmental Remote Sensing Center University of Wisconsin-Madison 1225 West Dayton Street, Room 1249 Madison, Wisconsin 53706 email: bolgrien@facstaff.wisc.edu Attending Participants

Dr. Virginia Card Biology Department Macalester College 1600 Grand Avenue St. Paul, Minnesota 55105 email: card@macalester.edu fax: 612-696-6443 ph: 612-686-6425

Dr. William Chang Division of International Programs National Science Foundation (NSF) 4201 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA 22230 email: wychang@nsf.gov fax: 703-306-0477 ph: 703-306-1704

Dr. Peter Dillon Ontario Ministry of the Environment Dorset, Ontario P0A 1E0 CANADA email: dillonpe@epo.gov.on.ca

Dr. Aija-Riitta Elo Department of Geophsyics University of Helsinki Post Office Box 4 Fabianinkatu 24 A FIN-00014 Helsinki Finland email: aija-riitta.elo@helsinki.fi

Dr. Thomas Frost University of Wisconsin 10810 County Highway N Boulder Junction, WI 54512-9733 email: tfrost@facstaff.wisc.edu

Mr. Nick Granin Limnological Institute P.O. Box 4199 Irkutsk 664033 Russia email: nick@hplc.irk.ru Attending Participants

Dr. Bruce Hayden Bruce P. Hayden University of Virginia Department of Environmental Sciences Charlottesville, VA 22903 email: bph@virginia.edu

Ms. Lynn Herche NOAA-GLERL 2205 Commonwealth Boulevard Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105-1593 email: lynnh@glerl.noaa.gov fax: 313-341-2055

Dr. David Jewson Freshwater Laboratory University of Ulster Traad Point, Ballyronan Magherafelt, Co. Londonderry BT45 6LR Northern Ireland email: d.jewson@ulst.ac.uk fax: 44-16-48418777

Dr. Esko Kuusisto Finnish Environmental Institute Post Office Box 140 FIN-00251 Helsinki Finland email: esko.kuusisto@vyh.fi fax: 35-89-40300490

Dr. Timothy Kratz University of Wisconsin 10810 County Highway N Boulder Junction, WI 54512-9733 email: tkkratz@facstaff.wisc.edu

Dr. John Lenters University of Wisconsin 680 N. Park Street Madison, WI 53706 email: jlenters@facstaff.wisc.edu

Dr. John J. Magnuson University of Wisconsin 680 N. Park Street Madison, WI 53706 email: jmagnuson@macc.wisc.edu

Dr. Dale M. Robertson USGS Water Resources Division 6417 Normandy Lane Madison, Wisconsin 53719-1133 email: dzrobert@usgs.gov fax: 608-276-3867 ph: 608-276-3817

Dr. Kenton M. Stewart Dept. of Biological Science State University of NY at Buffalo Buffalo, NY 14260 email: kstewart@acsu.buffalo.edu fax: 716-645-2975 ph: 716-645-2898

Mr. Stephen J. Vavrus Center for Climatic Research Institute for Environmental Studies University of Wisconsin-Madison 1225 West Dayton Street Madison, WI 53706 email: vavrus@phoebus.meteor.wisc.edu

Dr. Valery S. Vuglinsky Deputy Director State Hydrological Institute 23 Second Line St. Petersburg 199053 Russia email: ishiklom@sovam.com ph: 812-213-3458 fax: 812-213-1028

Ms. Sarah E. Walsh Climate, People, and Environment Program University of Wisconsin-Madison 1225 West Dayton Street Madison, Wisconsin 53706 email: swalsh@students.wisc.edu Attending Participants

Dr. Randolph Wynne Virginia Tech Department of Forestry 319 Cheatham Hall Blacksburg, VA 24061-0324 email: wynne@vt.edu

Participants Not Attending

Dr. Jonathan A. Foley Director, Climate, People and Environment Program Institute for Environmental Studies University of Wisconsin-Madison 1225 West Dayton Street Madison, Wisconsin 53706 email: jfoley@facstaff.wisc.edu

Professor Tadashi Arai, Department of Geography, Rissho University 4 - 2 - 16 Osaki, Shinagawa-Ku, Tokyo 141, Japan FAX: 9-011-81-3-5487-3273

Mr. Walter Skinner 4905 Dufferin Street CCAD Downsview, Ontario Canada M3H 5T4 email: walter.skinner@ec.gc.ca

Planned Papers

Lake Ice Analysis Group Trout Lake Workshop on Lake Ice and Climate October 10, 1996

Comparison of two numerical lake ice models: PROBE and LIMNOS Elo, Vavrus ice wall

ENSO effects on lake ice Biro, Chang, Robertson, Stewart

Extreme values and circulation patterns Assel, Herche, Lenters

Global simulation of lake ice phenology under 2xCO2 scenarios Elo, Foley, Lenters?, Magnuson, Vavrus, Walsh

Global simulation of lake ice phenology using a numerical process model Foley, Vavrus, Walsh

Ice thickness in relation to climatic forcing in Russia Bolgrien, Vuglinsky

Ice-off effects on early spring zooplankton succession Adrian, Afanaseva, Biro, Bolgrien, Card, Melnik

Incorporation of short-term records into long-term "picture" Adrian, Herche

Influence of large-scale snow patchiness on circulation dynamics of Lake Baikal Bolgrien, Granin, Jewson

Information management of ad-hoc research group: The LIAG Benson, Bolgrien?

Lake and non-lake ice-on and ice-off variability Benson, Chang, Hayden, Kratz, Magnuson, Wynne

Long-term ice phenology series, General/visual analysis, Extensive time series analysis Arai, Assel, Granin, Herche, Kuusisto, Magnuson, Robertson, Skinner, Stewart, Wynne

Phenology anomalies, Extremely early and late dates of lake freezing and breakup in the Northern Hemisphere, Chang, Kuusisto, Vuglinsky

Regional assessment of metereological/climatic determinants of lake ice phenology Card, Lenters, Vavrus

Response of Lake Balaton, Lake Suwa and Lake Tai to climate change Biro, Chang, and Japanese scientist

Response of planktonic diatoms to long-term ice changes in Lake Baikal Granin, Jewson

Specialist phytoplankton communities under ice Adrian, Bolgrien, Card, Finn (who?), Granin, Jewson, Padisak

Statistical characteristics of observed and modeled ice cover Elo, Vavrus

Sunspots and lake ice: "The final truth" Hayden, Kuusisto

Temperature calibration of long-term lake ice time series Assel, Robertson

The last 40 years of lake ice phenology: Evidence of recent warming? Assel, Hayden, Herche, Kuusisto, Magnuson, Robertson, Skinner, Stewart, Wynne

Volcanism Barry, Wynne

Why are rivers, bays, and harbors (but not lakes) warming? Hayden, Skinner, Wynne

Workshop overview documents Barry, Benson, Magnuson, Wynne

Data Access

Ongoing: 

LTER Keywords: 

NTL Keywords: 

Timeline: 

Thursday, October 15, 1998 to Tuesday, June 26, 2012