Fluxes project at North Temperate Lakes LTER: Hydrology Scenarios Model Output
A spatially-explicit simulation model of hydrologic flow-paths was developed by Matthew C. Van de Bogert and collaborators for his PhD project, "Aquatic ecosystem carbon cycling: From individual lakes to the landscape." The model is coupled with an in-lake carbon model and simulates hydrologic flow paths in groundwater, wetlands, lakes, uplands, and streams. The goal of this modeling effort was to compare aquatic carbon cycling in two climate scenarios for the North Highlands Lake District (NHLD) of northern Wisconsin: one based on the current climate and the other based on a scenario with warmer winters where lakes and uplands do not freeze, hereinafter referred to as the "no freeze" scenario. In modeling this "no freeze" scenario the same precipitation and temperature data as the current climate model was used, however temperature inputs were artificially floored at 0 degrees Celsius. While not discussed in his dissertation, Van de Bogert considered two other climate scenarios each using the same precipitation and temperature data as the current climate scenario. These scenarios involved running the model after artificially raising and lowering the current temperature data by 10 degrees Celsius. Thus, four scenarios were considered in this modeling effort, the current climate scenario, the "no freeze" scenario, the +10 degrees scenario, and the -10 degrees scenario. These data are the outputs of the model under the different scenarios and include average monthly temperature, average monthly rainfall, average monthly snowfall, total monthly precipitation, daily evapotranspiration, daily surface runoff, daily groundwater recharge, and daily total runoff. Note that the results of how temperature inputs influence aquatic carbon cycling under these different scenarios is not included in this data set, refer to Van de Bogert (2011) for this information. Documentation: Van de Bogert, M.C., 2011. Aquatic ecosystem carbon cycling: From individual lakes to the landscape. ProQuest Dissertations and Theses. The University of Wisconsin - Madison, United States -- Wisconsin, p. 156.
The spatially explicit Lakes, Uplands, Wetlands Integrator (LUWI) model of the NHLD was used to explore the interactions among climate, watershed connections, hydrology and carbon cycling. See Cardille et al. 2007 and Cardille et al. 2009 for details on the LUWI model. See Van de Bogert (2011) for a discussion of how these model outputs are used in conjunction with LUWI to predict the effects on lake carbon cycling under the current and "no freeze" climate scenarios.The climate data used in this modeling effort, precipitation and temperature, were obtained from Minoqua, Wisconsin, USA from 1948-2000. In order to test the effect of a climate without freezing temperatures on lake water and carbon cycling the current climate was modeled in addition to a “no freeze” scenario where a minimum air temperature of 0 degrees Celsius was imposed on the model. Note that Van de Bogert (2011) only focuses on the current and “no freeze” climate scenarios, but these data are representative of four climate scenarios: the current climate (base_minoqua_precip), the scenario where the current climate is artificially floored to zero degrees Celsius (no_below_zero), and the scenarios where the current climate is increased and decreased by 10 degrees Celsius (minus_10_degrees and plus_10_degrees).Furthermore, the temperature and precipitation data that was used for the current climate model runs was broken up into aggregates.The aggregates are the length of the 1948-2000 Minoqua temperature and precipitation data that was used in model runs. A total of seven different aggregates were used for model runs under each of the four climate scenarios. The aggregates include temperature and precipitation data from Minoqua, WI, USA for 1. the complete record from 1948-2000 (1948_2000) 2. the driest year which was 1976 (1976_driest) 3. The wettest year which was 1953 (1953_wettest) 4. the five driest years on record from 1948-2000 (5_driest) 5. the five wettest years on record from 1948-2000 (5_wettest) 6. the five coldest years on record for December, January, and February from 1948-2000 (5_coldest_djf) 7. the five warmest years on record for December, January, and February from 1948-2000 (5_warmest_djf).The volume and timing of precipitation to the region were unchanged between scenarios.Evaporation rates were derived from values obtained from the NTL-LTER study site, Sparkling Lake (46.01, -89.70). Refer to Van de Bogert (2011) for a more complete discussion of model inputs and a discussion of the results of the model output. Documentation: Van de Bogert, M.C., 2011. Aquatic ecosystem carbon cycling: From individual lakes to the landscape. ProQuest Dissertations and Theses. The University of Wisconsin - Madison, United States -- Wisconsin, p. 156.Cardille, J.A., Carpenter, S.R., Coe, M.T., Foley, J.A., Hanson, P.C., Turner, M.G., Vano, J.A., 2007. Carbon and water cycling in lake-rich landscapes: Landscape connections, lake hydrology, and biogeochemistry. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences 112.Cardille, J.A., Carpenter, S.R., Foley, J.A., Hanson, P.C., Turner, M.G., Vano, J.A., 2009. Climate change and lakes: Estimating sensitivities of water and carbon budgets. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences 114.